class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Global liquidity and the profitability of energy firms ] .subtitle[ ## ICEE 2022 - PORTO, PORTUGAL ] .author[ ### Orlando Joaqui-Barandica <strong>|</strong> Diego F. Manotas-Duque <strong>|</strong> Jorge M. Uribe ] .date[ ### June 2-3, 2022 ] --- class: clear .pull-left[ .center[ <br><br> <img src="img/logos.png" width="75%" /> ] ] .pull-right[ .center[ <img style="border-radius: 50%;" src="img/avatar.png" width="100px" href="https://www.joaquibarandica.com" /> [Orlando Joaqui-Barandica, M.Sc.](https://www.joaquibarandica.com) <br/> Universidad del Valle ] .center[ <img style="border-radius: 50%;" src="img/avatar2.PNG" width="100px" /> [Diego F. Manotas-Duque, Ph.D.](http://industrial.univalle.edu.co/profesores/diego-fernando-manotas-duque) <br> Universidad del Valle ] .center[ <img style="border-radius: 50%;" src="img/avatar3.PNG" width="100px" /> [Jorge M. Uribe, Ph.D.](https://jorgemuribe.com/) <br> Universitat Oberta de Catalunya ] ] ??? • Diapositiva 1 - Saludo Hello, Good morning. Thank you very much for attending my presentation. It is a pleasure to be here and share with you. Today, I'm going to talk about Global liquidity and the profitability of energy firms. In advance, I apologize for my English. • Diapositiva 2 – Autores This research is carried out in conjunction with, Professor Diego Manotas from the Universidad del Valle, and Professor Jorge M. Uribe from the Universidad Oberta de Cataluña. <!-- --- --> <!-- class: contenido --> <!-- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> --> <!-- # Content --> <!-- .pull-left[ --> <!-- </br> --> <!-- ### <i class="fas fa-circle-notch fa-spin "></i> [Motivation](#Motivation) --> <!-- ### <i class="fas fa-circle-notch fa-spin "></i> [Energy profitability literature](#Literature) --> <!-- ### <i class="fas fa-circle-notch fa-spin "></i> [Methodology & Data](#Methodology) --> <!-- ### <i class="fas fa-circle-notch fa-spin "></i> [Results](#Results) --> <!-- ### <i class="fas fa-circle-notch fa-spin "></i> [Conclusion](#Conclusion) --> <!-- ] --> <!-- .pull.right[ --> <!-- ] --> <!-- ??? --> <!-- • Diapositiva 3 – Contenido --> <!-- This is the content that I will expose today: We will begin with a brief introduction or motivation to the research topic. --> <!-- Secondly, I will present some works consulted on energy profitability. Subsequently, I will present the methodology carried out in the empirical work and, finally, I will show the results and conclusions of the research. --> <!-- --- --> <!--name: Motivation --> <!-- class: inverse, mline, center, middle --> <!-- <div class="my-logo-center"></div> --> <!-- # Motivation --> <!-- ??? --> <!-- Diapo 3: Transición --> <!-- Talking a little about the motivation for this work... we have... --> --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Motivation <br><br> .pull-left[ .font120[ * Understanding the determinants of companies’ profitability is of utmost importance for both, academics and corporate managers. * Different empirical and theoretical studies show that profitability depends on external conditions, industry scope and specific firms’ characteristics `(Wieczorek-Kosmala et al., 2021)` ] ] .pull-right[ .center[  .font120[ `External determinants` vs. `Internal determinants` ] ] ] ??? Diapo 3: Motivación Understanding the causes or generation of company profitability is a topic of interest in the academic and business world. Although, different companies may in turn present different causes or events that determine their profitability, depending on the structure of assets, or financial structure or operations or composition of assets. We could mainly identify two foci of the determinants. In the first place, we have the internal determinants, that refers to all characteristics in the company. On the other hand, we have the external determinants, that refers to all characteristics external to the company that cant be controlled by the CEOs or managers but that clearly influence on profitability, or decision-making or management strategies. --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Motivation .left-column[ .left[ ## Profitability... ... is defined as the ability to take advantage of resources to generate profits, therefore, as an indicator of effective management. ] ] .right-column[ ## Idiosyncratic characteristics vs. Common forces .font120[ Identifying the determinants of profitability and anticipating its fluctuations guarantees timely and informed decision-making that maximizes value for the company’s stakeholders. .pull-left[ **Internal determinants** * `Firms’ age` * `Size` * `Financial leverage` * etc. ] .pull-right[ **External determinants** * `Fuel prices` * `Interest rates` * `Exchange rates` * `Economic activity` * etc. ] ] ] ??? Diapo 4: Motivación The importance of profitability lies on its relevance as an indicator of efficient management in terms of utility and benefit for companies. In the case of the energy companies, we found a big difference in their composition and management strategies, mainly by the sources of generation as to oil, wind, water or solar. This generates different strategies to maximize the value of the companies due to their operation. Different authors have identified Internal aspects as firms' age, or size, financial leverage, etc., On the other hand, the external determinants can be fuel prices, interest rates, exchange rates, economic activity, etc. --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Motivation .font180[**Here...**] .right[ <br> .font180[... we analyze the external determinants of the profitability of energy firms, and specifically, the effect of `global liquidity` on the profitability of companies belonging to different energy sub-sectors] ] <hr> <br> .font120[ <span><i class="fas fa-angle-double-right faa-passing animated "></i></span> Our working hypothesis is that changes of `global interest rates` (and hence of funding liquidity) have important effects on the financial operation of large energy firms. ] ??? Diapo 5: Motivación We focus on analyzing the external determinants. Specifically the global liquidity that we measure from interest rates. Our working hypothesis is that changes in global interest rates have important effects on the financial operation of large energy companies. --- <!-- --- name: Methodology class: inverse, mline, center, middle <div class="my-logo-center"></div> # Methodology & Data #??? Diapo 9: Transición About the methodology and the data, we have: --> <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Methodology .font120[ > 1️⃣ `Global liquidity -> World Interest Rate (WIR)` We extract the first principal component of the interest rates in developed markets. <div style="line-height:5%;"> <br> </div> .pull-left[ > 2️⃣ We estimate `Common factor of profitability` of a sample the energy companies worldwide using FPCA (Functional Principals Components Analyses) according to their energy subsector: .font90[ * Coal * Oil & Gas * Oil & Gas Related Equipment and Services * Renewable Energy * Uranium ] <div style="line-height:5%;"> <br> </div> ] .pull-right[ > 3️⃣ We measure `The effect of global liquidity on profitability` using DLNM (Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model ). <br> .font90[ `$$\begin{equation} g\left(\mu_t\right)=\alpha+\sum_{j=1}^{J}{s_j\left({WIR}_{tj};\beta_j\right)}+\sum_{k=1}^{K}\gamma_ku_{tk} \end{equation} \nonumber$$` ] ] ] ??? Diapo 6: Metodología We have structured 3 methodological stages. First, we construct a common factor from different developed market interest rates. This factor is called the world interest rate and is our indicator of global liquidity. WIR in short form. Second, we estimate a common factor of profitability for firms in each subsector. We do this using Principal Functional Component Analysis. Third, we measure the effect of global liquidity on profitability using the nonlinear distributed lag model. We estimate a smooth response surface (Sj). An advantage of this analysis is to observe the effect through the lags of the predictor variable (WIR). <!-- --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Factor analysis by principal components (PCA) <br> .pull-left[ .font120[ The PCA method comes from `Hotelling (1933)` and gained notoriety in the 1970s and 1980s (e.g., `Jolliffe (1986)`; `Lawley and Maxwell (1971)`). We take the first component as the world interest rate. We estimate `\(WIR_j\)` `\((j = 1,...,p)\)` where each `\(WIR_j\)` is a linear combination of the original variables. In this case, the long and short-term interest rates are given by `\(w_1,w_2,...,w_p\)`, hence: ] ] .pull-right[ .font120[ `$$\begin{align} {WIR}_j & = a_{j1}w_1+ a_{j2}w_2+\ldots + a_{jp}w_p \nonumber \\ & = \mathrm{a}_j^\prime\mathrm{w} \end{align}$$` <br> where `\(\mathrm{a}_j^\prime=(a_{1j}, a_{2j}, \ldots, a_{pj})\)` a vector of constants, and `\(w\)` a vector of global interest rates. `$$\begin{equation}\mathrm{W}= \begin{bmatrix} w_1 \\ \vdots \\ w_p \end{bmatrix}\end{equation}$$` ] ] #??? Diapo 11: Metodología Explaining a little our methodology. The technique used for the construction of WIR is the analysis of principal components, which allows us to generate, through a linear combination, a component that summarizes a large part of the variability of interest rates in the developed markets. --> <!-- --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Functional principals components analysis <br> .font120[ We use sparse functional data methods to reconstruct the whole history of profitability for all firms in the dataset. This can be expressed following `Yao et al. (2005)` like: `$$\begin{equation} X_i\left(t\right)=\mu\left(t\right)+\sum_{k=1}^{\infty\ }{\xi_{ik}\varphi_k\left(t\right)} \end{equation}$$` where `\(\xi_{ik}\)` are functional principal components for `\(X_i\left(t\right)\)` (i.e. underlaying series), and `\(\varphi_1, \varphi_2, \ldots\)` are the corresponding orthonormal eigenfunctions. The entire data set is used to estimate the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions in the following way: `$$\begin{equation} {\hat{\xi}}_{ik}=E[\xi_{ik}|\tilde{\boldsymbol{Y}}_i] = {\hat{\lambda}}_k{\hat{\varphi}}_{ik}^T {\hat{\mathbf{\Sigma}}}_i^{-1}\left({\tilde{{\boldsymbol{Y}}}}_i-{\hat{{\boldsymbol{\mu}}}}_i\right) \end{equation}$$` where `\({\hat{{\Sigma}}}_i=\ {\hat{{G}}}_i+\sigma^2{I}\)`, and `\({\tilde{{Y}}}_i=\left(Y_{i1},\ \ldots,\ Y_{iN_i}\right)^T\)`. ] #??? Diapo 12: Metodología Below, we use Functional Principal Component Analysis due to the characteristics of our profitability data. Here we estimate the functional components for each subsector, where, We assume that the profitability of companies responds to a common underlying process. --> --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Data .panelset[ .panel[.panel-name[Profitability information] > <span><i class="fas fa-angle-double-right faa-passing animated "></i></span> Profitability information of energy companies was retrieved from the Refinitiv EIKON database. > <span><i class="fas fa-angle-double-right faa-passing animated "></i></span> We use ROA (Return on Assets) <div style="line-height:5%;"> <br> </div> <div id="vtjuzzcket" style="overflow-x:auto;overflow-y:auto;width:auto;height:auto;"> <style>html { font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', Arial, sans-serif; } #vtjuzzcket .gt_table { display: table; border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; color: #333333; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 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#vtjuzzcket .gt_two_val_uncert { display: inline-block; line-height: 1em; text-align: right; font-size: 60%; vertical-align: -0.25em; margin-left: 0.1em; } #vtjuzzcket .gt_footnote_marks { font-style: italic; font-weight: normal; font-size: 75%; vertical-align: 0.4em; } #vtjuzzcket .gt_asterisk { font-size: 100%; vertical-align: 0; } #vtjuzzcket .gt_slash_mark { font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0.7em; vertical-align: 0.15em; } #vtjuzzcket .gt_fraction_numerator { font-size: 0.6em; line-height: 0.6em; vertical-align: 0.45em; } #vtjuzzcket .gt_fraction_denominator { font-size: 0.6em; line-height: 0.6em; vertical-align: -0.05em; } </style> <table class="gt_table"> <thead class="gt_header"> <tr> <th colspan="3" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal" style><strong>Sample of firms according to profitability indicator ROA and energy sub-sector.</strong></th> </tr> <tr> <th colspan="3" class="gt_heading gt_subtitle gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>The period: 2000Q1 to 2021Q2</th> </tr> </thead> <thead class="gt_col_headings"> <tr> <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Sub-sectors</th> <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">n = 536</th> <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">(%)</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody class="gt_table_body"> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Coal</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">15</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">2.7</td></tr> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Oil & Gas</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">278</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">51.8</td></tr> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Oil & Gas (Equipment and Services)</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">177</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">32.8</td></tr> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Renewable Energy</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">58</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">10.7</td></tr> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Uranium</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">11</td> <td class="gt_row gt_right">2.0</td></tr> </tbody> <tfoot class="gt_sourcenotes"> <tr> <td class="gt_sourcenote" colspan="3">Note: We use Refinitiv Business Classification (TRBC) to assign subsectors to each energy firm in our sample.</td> </tr> </tfoot> </table> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[Global liquidity information] > <span><i class="fas fa-angle-double-right faa-passing animated "></i></span> We use interest rate information from developed markets. > <span><i class="fas fa-angle-double-right faa-passing animated "></i></span> Short-term and long-term interest rates were extracted from the OECD database <div style="line-height:5%;"> <br> </div> <div id="dhaqhgakfc" style="overflow-x:auto;overflow-y:auto;width:auto;height:auto;"> <style>html { font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', Arial, sans-serif; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_table { display: table; border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 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border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-color: #D3D3D3; border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 2px; border-right-color: #D3D3D3; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_footnote { margin: 0px; font-size: 90%; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_sourcenotes { color: #333333; background-color: #FFFFFF; border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-color: #D3D3D3; border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 2px; border-right-color: #D3D3D3; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_sourcenote { font-size: 90%; padding-top: 4px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_left { text-align: left; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_center { text-align: center; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_right { text-align: right; font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_font_normal { font-weight: normal; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_font_bold { font-weight: bold; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_font_italic { font-style: italic; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_super { font-size: 65%; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_two_val_uncert { display: inline-block; line-height: 1em; text-align: right; font-size: 60%; vertical-align: -0.25em; margin-left: 0.1em; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_footnote_marks { font-style: italic; font-weight: normal; font-size: 75%; vertical-align: 0.4em; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_asterisk { font-size: 100%; vertical-align: 0; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_slash_mark { font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 0.7em; vertical-align: 0.15em; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_fraction_numerator { font-size: 0.6em; line-height: 0.6em; vertical-align: 0.45em; } #dhaqhgakfc .gt_fraction_denominator { font-size: 0.6em; line-height: 0.6em; vertical-align: -0.05em; } </style> <table class="gt_table"> <thead class="gt_header"> <tr> <th colspan="5" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal" style><strong>Developed economies</strong></th> </tr> <tr> <th colspan="5" class="gt_heading gt_subtitle gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>The period: 2000Q1 to 2021Q2</th> </tr> </thead> <thead class="gt_col_headings"> <tr> <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> </th> <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> </th> <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> </th> <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> </th> <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody class="gt_table_body"> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Australia</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Finland</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Italy</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Portugal</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">United States</td></tr> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Austria</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">France</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Japan</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Spain</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left"> </td></tr> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Belgium</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Germany</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Netherlands</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Sweden</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left"> </td></tr> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Canada</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Ireland</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">New Zealand</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Switzerland</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left"> </td></tr> <tr><td class="gt_row gt_left">Denmark</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Israel</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">Norway</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left">United Kingdom</td> <td class="gt_row gt_left"> </td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[Energy firms by country] <br> <div id="htmlwidget-1d91c8f7b5cf6e7b0cf0" style="width:100%;height:100%;" class="plotly html-widget"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-1d91c8f7b5cf6e7b0cf0">{"x":{"visdat":{"2e2c2153396c":["function () 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<br /> Energy firms: 0","Albania <br /> Energy firms: 0","Algeria <br /> Energy firms: 0","American Samoa <br /> Energy firms: 0","Andorra <br /> Energy firms: 0","Angola <br /> Energy firms: 0","Anguilla <br /> Energy firms: 0","Antigua and Barbuda <br /> Energy firms: 0","Argentina <br /> Energy firms: 0","Armenia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Aruba <br /> Energy firms: 0","Australia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Austria <br /> Energy firms: 2","Azerbaijan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Bahamas, The <br /> Energy firms: 0","Bahrain <br /> Energy firms: 0","Bangladesh <br /> Energy firms: 0","Barbados <br /> Energy firms: 0","Belarus <br /> Energy firms: 0","Belgium <br /> Energy firms: 0","Belize <br /> Energy firms: 0","Benin <br /> Energy firms: 0","Bermuda <br /> Energy firms: 0","Bhutan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Bolivia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Bosnia and Herzegovina <br /> Energy firms: 0","Botswana <br /> Energy firms: 0","Brazil <br /> Energy firms: 2","British Virgin Islands <br /> Energy firms: 0","Brunei <br /> Energy firms: 0","Bulgaria <br /> Energy firms: 0","Burkina Faso <br /> Energy firms: 0","Burma <br /> Energy firms: 0","Burundi <br /> Energy firms: 0","Cabo Verde <br /> Energy firms: 0","Cambodia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Cameroon <br /> Energy firms: 0","Canada <br /> Energy firms: 114","Cayman Islands <br /> Energy firms: 0","Central African Republic <br /> Energy firms: 0","Chad <br /> Energy firms: 0","Chile <br /> Energy firms: 1","China <br /> Energy firms: 3","Colombia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Comoros <br /> Energy firms: 0","Congo, Democratic Republic of the <br /> Energy firms: 0","Congo, Republic of the <br /> Energy firms: 0","Cook Islands <br /> Energy firms: 0","Costa Rica <br /> Energy firms: 0","Cote d'Ivoire <br /> Energy firms: 0","Croatia <br /> Energy firms: 1","Cuba <br /> Energy firms: 0","Curacao <br /> Energy firms: 0","Cyprus <br /> Energy firms: 0","Czech Republic <br /> Energy firms: 0","Denmark <br /> Energy firms: 4","Djibouti <br /> Energy firms: 0","Dominica <br /> Energy firms: 0","Dominican Republic <br /> Energy firms: 0","Ecuador <br /> Energy firms: 0","Egypt <br /> Energy firms: 0","El Salvador <br /> Energy firms: 0","Equatorial Guinea <br /> Energy firms: 0","Eritrea <br /> Energy firms: 0","Estonia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Ethiopia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) <br /> Energy firms: 0","Faroe Islands <br /> Energy firms: 0","Fiji <br /> Energy firms: 0","Finland <br /> Energy firms: 1","France <br /> Energy firms: 3","French Polynesia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Gabon <br /> Energy firms: 0","Gambia, The <br /> Energy firms: 0","Georgia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Germany <br /> Energy firms: 9","Ghana <br /> Energy firms: 0","Gibraltar <br /> Energy firms: 0","Greece <br /> Energy firms: 4","Greenland <br /> Energy firms: 0","Grenada <br /> Energy firms: 0","Guam <br /> Energy firms: 0","Guatemala <br /> Energy firms: 0","Guernsey <br /> Energy firms: 0","Guinea-Bissau <br /> Energy firms: 0","Guinea <br /> Energy firms: 0","Guyana <br /> Energy firms: 0","Haiti <br /> Energy firms: 0","Honduras <br /> Energy firms: 0","Hong Kong <br /> Energy firms: 0","Hungary <br /> Energy firms: 1","Iceland <br /> Energy firms: 0","India <br /> Energy firms: 0","Indonesia <br /> Energy firms: 1","Iran <br /> Energy firms: 0","Iraq <br /> Energy firms: 0","Ireland <br /> Energy firms: 0","Isle of Man <br /> Energy firms: 0","Israel <br /> Energy firms: 4","Italy <br /> Energy firms: 8","Jamaica <br /> Energy firms: 0","Japan <br /> Energy firms: 29","Jersey <br /> Energy firms: 0","Jordan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Kazakhstan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Kenya <br /> Energy firms: 0","Kiribati <br /> Energy firms: 0","Korea, North <br /> Energy firms: 0","Korea, South <br /> Energy firms: 12","Kosovo <br /> Energy firms: 0","Kuwait <br /> Energy firms: 4","Kyrgyzstan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Laos <br /> Energy firms: 0","Latvia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Lebanon <br /> Energy firms: 0","Lesotho <br /> Energy firms: 0","Liberia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Libya <br /> Energy firms: 0","Liechtenstein <br /> Energy firms: 0","Lithuania <br /> Energy firms: 1","Luxembourg <br /> Energy firms: 0","Macau <br /> Energy firms: 0","Macedonia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Madagascar <br /> Energy firms: 0","Malawi <br /> Energy firms: 0","Malaysia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Maldives <br /> Energy firms: 0","Mali <br /> Energy firms: 0","Malta <br /> Energy firms: 0","Marshall Islands <br /> Energy firms: 0","Mauritania <br /> Energy firms: 0","Mauritius <br /> Energy firms: 0","Mexico <br /> Energy firms: 0","Micronesia, Federated States of <br /> Energy firms: 0","Moldova <br /> Energy firms: 0","Monaco <br /> Energy firms: 0","Mongolia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Montenegro <br /> Energy firms: 0","Morocco <br /> Energy firms: 0","Mozambique <br /> Energy firms: 0","Namibia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Nepal <br /> Energy firms: 0","Netherlands <br /> Energy firms: 1","New Caledonia <br /> Energy firms: 0","New Zealand <br /> Energy firms: 0","Nicaragua <br /> Energy firms: 0","Nigeria <br /> Energy firms: 0","Niger <br /> Energy firms: 0","Niue <br /> Energy firms: 0","Northern Mariana Islands <br /> Energy firms: 0","Norway <br /> Energy firms: 39","Oman <br /> Energy firms: 4","Pakistan <br /> Energy firms: 3","Palau <br /> Energy firms: 0","Panama <br /> Energy firms: 0","Papua New Guinea <br /> Energy firms: 0","Paraguay <br /> Energy firms: 0","Peru <br /> Energy firms: 0","Philippines <br /> Energy firms: 0","Poland <br /> Energy firms: 3","Portugal <br /> Energy firms: 2","Puerto Rico <br /> Energy firms: 0","Qatar <br /> Energy firms: 2","Romania <br /> Energy firms: 4","Russia <br /> Energy firms: 1","Rwanda <br /> Energy firms: 0","Saint Kitts and Nevis <br /> Energy firms: 0","Saint Lucia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Saint Martin <br /> Energy firms: 0","Saint Pierre and Miquelon <br /> Energy firms: 0","Saint Vincent and the Grenadines <br /> Energy firms: 0","Samoa <br /> Energy firms: 0","San Marino <br /> Energy firms: 0","Sao Tome and Principe <br /> Energy firms: 0","Saudi Arabia <br /> Energy firms: 3","Senegal <br /> Energy firms: 0","Serbia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Seychelles <br /> Energy firms: 0","Sierra Leone <br /> Energy firms: 0","Singapore <br /> Energy firms: 0","Sint Maarten <br /> Energy firms: 0","Slovakia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Slovenia <br /> Energy firms: 1","Solomon Islands <br /> Energy firms: 0","Somalia <br /> Energy firms: 0","South Africa <br /> Energy firms: 0","South Sudan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Spain <br /> Energy firms: 3","Sri Lanka <br /> Energy firms: 0","Sudan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Suriname <br /> Energy firms: 0","Swaziland <br /> Energy firms: 0","Sweden <br /> Energy firms: 3","Switzerland <br /> Energy firms: 0","Syria <br /> Energy firms: 0","Taiwan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Tajikistan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Tanzania <br /> Energy firms: 0","Thailand <br /> Energy firms: 3","Timor-Leste <br /> Energy firms: 0","Togo <br /> Energy firms: 0","Tonga <br /> Energy firms: 0","Trinidad and Tobago <br /> Energy firms: 0","Tunisia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Turkey <br /> Energy firms: 2","Turkmenistan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Tuvalu <br /> Energy firms: 0","Uganda <br /> Energy firms: 0","Ukraine <br /> Energy firms: 0","United Arab Emirates <br /> Energy firms: 1","United Kingdom <br /> Energy firms: 3","United States <br /> Energy firms: 255","Uruguay <br /> Energy firms: 0","Uzbekistan <br /> Energy firms: 0","Vanuatu <br /> Energy firms: 0","Venezuela <br /> Energy firms: 0","Vietnam <br /> Energy firms: 2","Virgin Islands <br /> Energy firms: 0","West Bank <br /> Energy firms: 0","Yemen <br /> Energy firms: 0","Zambia <br /> Energy firms: 0","Zimbabwe <br /> Energy firms: 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<br /> Energy firms: 2","Brazil <br /> Energy firms: 2","Canada <br /> Energy firms: 114","Chile <br /> Energy firms: 1","China <br /> Energy firms: 3","Croatia <br /> Energy firms: 1","Denmark <br /> Energy firms: 4","Finland <br /> Energy firms: 1","France <br /> Energy firms: 3","Germany <br /> Energy firms: 9","Greece <br /> Energy firms: 4","Hungary <br /> Energy firms: 1","Indonesia <br /> Energy firms: 1","Israel <br /> Energy firms: 4","Italy <br /> Energy firms: 8","Japan <br /> Energy firms: 29","Korea, South <br /> Energy firms: 12","Kuwait <br /> Energy firms: 4","Lithuania <br /> Energy firms: 1","Netherlands <br /> Energy firms: 1","Norway <br /> Energy firms: 39","Oman <br /> Energy firms: 4","Pakistan <br /> Energy firms: 3","Poland <br /> Energy firms: 3","Portugal <br /> Energy firms: 2","Qatar <br /> Energy firms: 2","Romania <br /> Energy firms: 4","Russia <br /> Energy firms: 1","Saudi Arabia <br /> Energy firms: 3","Slovenia <br /> Energy firms: 1","Spain <br /> Energy firms: 3","Sweden <br /> Energy firms: 3","Thailand <br /> Energy firms: 3","Turkey <br /> Energy firms: 2","United Arab Emirates <br /> Energy firms: 1","United Kingdom <br /> Energy firms: 3","United States <br /> Energy firms: 255","Vietnam <br /> Energy firms: 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] ] ??? Diapo 7: Data Our data on the profitability of energy companies and the macroeconomic interest rate environment come from two different sources. We use ROA, which is Return on Assets, ROA measures the operating efficiency of a company. We have 536 companies, with major participation of Oil and Gas companies. We use short and long-term interest rates for 21 countries of developed economies regarding global liquidity information. Long-term interest rates refer to government bonds maturing in ten years. Short-term interest rates are based on three-month money market rates. Finally, we present the distribution of the companies in our sample. The US and Canada have the largest participation in the sample. This map allows us to visualize our sample around the world. <!-- --- name: Results class: inverse, mline, center, middle <div class="my-logo-center"></div> # Results #??? Diapo 15: Transición Looking at the results... --> --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # World Interest Rate <img src="img/WIR.png" width="100%" /> ??? Diapo 8: Results This figure shows the first component (black line). It explains 82% of the variability in the dataset and captures general market movements. Our series of interest rates as well as our estimated factor are centered. --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Response surface <div id="htmlwidget-5358bcbe5a363d2e98f6" style="width:100%;height:100%;" class="plotly html-widget"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-5358bcbe5a363d2e98f6">{"x":{"visdat":{"175452b16ff9":["function () 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??? Diapo 9: Results This plot is the main result of the DLNM method. We present the response surface with 3 dimensions. Here, we have the lags, which refer to the time or delay, on this side the WIR which refers to the predictor variable and on this side the Profitability which refers to the response variable. The surface presents all the effects. When the WIR decreases and we have the first lags, the effect on the profitability is high. But, reading these graphs in 3d is usually complex. For this reason, it is better to present contour plots. --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Effect global liquidity on profitability <img src="img/contour.png" width="100%" /> ??? Diapo 10: Results Here we can compare the estimated effect for each subsector. We note that the effect is not symmetric, meaning that the effect when WIR decreases is not the same as when WIR increases (remember... decreases in WIR represent increases in global liquidity). We can identify that the Oil and Gas subsector is the most sensitive in the first lags when the WIR decreases. The subsectors of Coal, Oil & Gas related to equipment and services, and renewables, have similar behavior. In general, we find that declines in the world interest rate (WIR) are associated with higher profitability in all sectors except the uranium subsector. This subsector has negative effects on profitability. <!-- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Cumulative effect <img src="img/efecto_acum.png" width="100%" /> --> <!-- --- name: Conclusion class: inverse, mline, center, middle <div class="my-logo-center"></div> # Conclusions #??? Diapo 19: Transición Now, in the conclusions we have.. --> --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Conclusion .left-column[ .font400[1.] <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> .font400[2.] ] .right-column[ .font120[ > The effect of global liquidity on the profitability of energy companies is asymmetric. <br> <br> <hr> <br> > The profitability of energy companies is affected differently depending on their sub-sector relative to global liquidity. ] ] ??? Diapo 11: Conclusiones The effect of global liquidity on profitability is not linear, that refers to asymmetric effects. The relationship between profitability and global liquidity for each subsector is different, depending on its asset structure as a result of the generation source. --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Conclusion .left-column[ .font400[3.] <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> .font400[4.] ] .right-column[ .font120[ > Increases in global liquidity, i.e., negative WIR, present stronger effects on profitability, but these are not persistent over time. <br> <br> <hr> <br> > Uranium companies show strong positive effects on profitability given changes in global liquidity (ie negative WIR). ] ] ??? Diapo 12: Conclusiones The most relevant effect occurs when the WIR is negative, that refers to, increases in global liquidity. This effect occurs in the first, second, or third trimester, but it is not persistent over time. The uranium subsector has a different behavior from other subsectors. Future research could analyze the specific composition of the assets in this subsector. --- <div class="my-logo-right"></div> # Conclusion .left-column[ <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> .font400[5.] ] .right-column[ <br> <br> <hr> <br> .font120[ > We show that the decrease in interest rates by the different monetary authorities boosts liquidity and, in turn, the profitability of energy companies. This supports economic growth and restores financial stability. ] <br> <hr> ] ??? Diapo 13: Conclusiones Finally, we can conclude that the actions taken by the monetary regulators to incentivize the economy,,, have effects on all the companies in the energy sector, mainly in oil and gas. --- class: inverse, mline, center, bottom <div class="my-logo-center"></div> # Thanks !!! <br> <br> <span><i class="fas fa-envelope faa-passing animated "></i></span> orlando.joaqui@correounivalle.edu.co .font140[**|**] <span><i class="fas fa-envelope faa-passing animated "></i></span> diego.manotas@correounivalle.edu.co .font140[**|**] <span><i class="fas fa-envelope faa-passing animated "></i></span> juribeg@uoc.edu <br> <br> <br> <br> ??? Diapositiva 14 – Thanks Thank you very much for your attention. Again, I apologize for my imperfect pronunciation. Is there any question?